SpaceX shares fall for second straight day after 49% jump

By Carmen Reinicke, Bloomberg

SpaceX shares slipped for a second straight day as it wraps up its first week as a public company following a record initial public offering.

The stock fell as much as 5.8% shortly after the open of US exchanges, extending Wednesday’s nearly 5% decline, which marked first down day for shares after they jumped 49% across their first three days of trading. Still, the rocket and AI company remains on track to end the week about 35% above its $135 IPO price.

Volatility is likely to continue as investors weigh lofty expectations for future revenue growth without a clear path to achieving them, according to Michael Monaghan, partner and portfolio manager at Founder Funds in Dallas, which holds shares of SpaceX.

“We got very comfortable owning this stock because we could see $200 billion of revenue in 2030,” he said, noting even higher estimates elsewhere. “But literally and figuratively you need a rocket to go get those revenues.”

That view was echoed by Arete Research’s Andrew Beale, who initiated coverage on the stock Thursday with a buy rating and $401 price target, implying it will more than double from where it currently trades.

“We think fundamentals and SpaceX’s long-term growth potential will drive investor interest,” Beale said. While he forecasts that the firm will top $200 billion in revenue by 2030, he cautioned that the path there won’t necessarily be entirely smooth sailing.

“Space is hard and timelines can slip with launch anomalies, technical challenges, environmental concerns and any number of other factors, so all estimates should be treated with a wide degree of caution,” he added.

Despite the rocky few sessions of trading, shares may be about to get some support from index inclusions in the weeks ahead. SpaceX will be eligible to be added to the Nasdaq 100 index after 15 days of trading thanks to Nasdaq Inc. changing its rules to allow faster entry to megacap IPOs. FTSE Russell and MSCI Inc. made similar changes to allow early addition into their gauges.

As a result, about 30% of SpaceX’s free float is set to be owned by passive investors just two weeks after the IPO, according to Intropic, a provider of index-rebalancing forecasts. That demand, combined with its low float — as lockups keep insiders from selling shares for months — could put upward pressure on SpaceX shares.

–With assistance from Subrat Patnaik and Bernard Goyder.

(Updates with opening share price.)

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