{"id":8229,"date":"2026-09-02T10:22:35","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T10:22:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=8229"},"modified":"2026-09-02T10:22:35","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T10:22:35","slug":"klas-a-voter-enthusiasm-gap-is-steering-the-midterms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=8229","title":{"rendered":"Klas: A voter enthusiasm gap is steering the midterms"},"content":{"rendered":"
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We\u2019re near the end of the 2026 primary election season and the state of American democracy is looking \u2014 sigh of relief \u2014 better than expected.<\/p>\n

Read more Asking Eric: When I got to the hospital, my dying sister\u2019s son barred me from seeing her<\/a><\/p>\n

As the Trump administration has trampled on the rule of law, tried to undermine elections and pursued a self-enriching agenda, Americans are pushing back and demanding change \u2014 from both parties. Democracy depends on trusting ordinary people to make consequential decisions and, this election cycle, voters have reminded us they\u2019re doing just that.<\/p>\n

Democratic voters have been especially engaged. In primaries and special elections in the last 18 months, they voted in numbers the party hasn\u2019t seen in decades. Democrats broke voter turnout records in the key states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Texas and Georgia. They\u2019ve made 37 safe Republican seats competitive and signaled a blue wave may be coming in November.<\/p>\n

As of late June, about 12.6 million votes had been cast in Democratic House primaries, compared with 8.6 million in Republican primaries, according to a Washington Post analysis.<\/p>\n

The reasons are many. Midterm elections always favor the party out of power. Highly educated voters are more reliable voters in primary and special elections than the rest of the electorate and, in the Trump era, these voters are more Democratic-leaning than the electorate at large. And perhaps the most obvious reason: Trump\u2019s poll numbers are so low, his war with Iran is so unpopular and his handling of the economy is so disappointing that Republican voters are staying home.<\/p>\n

But Trumpism \u2014 by which I mean the personalized, transactional, strongman way Trump governs \u2014 is also playing a role. While Democrats can run hyper-local campaigns, focused on their plans to address housing costs and gas prices, Republicans are yoked to a domineering president with unpopular policies. If they step out of the circle and criticize Trump, his war, or his policies, they get shamed by his shrinking base, called out by the president on social media, or confronted with a primary opponent backed by the president.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s all led highly motivated voters to support Democrats over Republicans 53% to 45% in recent polls.<\/p>\n

This Democratic overperformance has already had results. The Down Ballot, an election analysis website, examined the results of 110 special elections since January of 2025 and determined that Democrats have done better than their 2024 margins by an average of 12.5 points.Of course, voter turnout in primary elections is not a perfect predictor of general election results, especially in key states like Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio and Florida, which have closed primary systems that strand millions of independent voters. In 10 states with semi-closed primaries, like North Carolina, unaffiliated voters can vote if they meet certain criteria. These independent or no-party-affiliated voters are likely to determine the outcome of key races across the country, and 47% of all Americans say they don\u2019t consider themselves a part of either major political party.<\/p>\n

Read more Harriette Cole: My neighbor came to our house and yelled at my child<\/a><\/p>\n

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\u201cThe big unknown moving forward is: To what degree are disaffected Trump voters going to show up and vote, and who will they vote for?\u201d said Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida who studies voter turnout. \u201cWe know that Republicans are less enthusiastic. We suspect that they\u2019re not going to show up.\u201d<\/p>\n

And if that happens, he told me, it could be like the midterms of 2018 when Democrats had an 8.5-percentage-point margin in the national vote for Congress and picked up over 40 seats. (To clinch control of Congress in November, Democrats need to flip four House seats and four Senate seats. They\u2019ll need those margins to hold.)<\/p>\n

Aware of this, Republicans have attempted to mitigate some of the backlash. At Trump\u2019s urging, they launched a national redistricting war that netted them, on paper, a six- to nine-seat advantage in the US House. But by creating more competitive districts, Republicans may have also inadvertently contributed to the turnout surge by giving Democrats more reason to participate. In Texas, for example, where Republicans redrew the map to give themselves five additional seats, more votes were cast for Democrats than Republicans in primaries for three of the five redrawn districts.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Democratic candidates have made some calculated overtures to Republicans to demonstrate to swing voters they can straddle party differences. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff was endorsed by the GOP mayors of Valdosta and Tifton. In Arizona, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs named former Republican and Mesa Mayor John Giles as her running mate in her re-election bid. And in Texas, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico hired a staffer from Republican Senator John Cornyn\u2019s Senate office to serve as deputy policy director.<\/p>\n

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The 2026 field of Democratic nominees also reflects these pluralistic sensibilities. Voters have elevated Democratic candidates with a variety of views \u2014 from pro-Israel centrists to members of the Democratic Socialists of America. There may be risks to this for the party \u2014 as I\u2019ve noted before, big tents can get big rips \u2014 but it\u2019s surely better for elected officials to reflect Americans\u2019 diversity of views than to merely repeat the talking points of one retributive president.<\/p>\n

Republicans have already started to portray this election as a choice between the status quo and communism, labeling a socialist every Democrat who demands better healthcare, lower housing costs and affordable groceries. But to get people to turn out to vote, you\u2019ve got to give them something to vote for. If Democrats listen to voters, they\u2019ll conclude that voters don\u2019t want the status quo. They want results.<\/p>\n

Mary Ellen Klas is a politics and policy columnist for Bloomberg Opinion.\u00a0\u00a92026 Bloomberg. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency.<\/em><\/p>\n

Read more Miss Manners: I set a trap and proved my co-worker is faking an allergy<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As of late June, about 12.6 million votes had been cast in Democratic House primaries, compared with 8.6 million in Republican primaries<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8228,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"yoast_head":"\nKlas: A voter enthusiasm gap is steering the midterms - Next City Digest<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=8229\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Klas: A voter enthusiasm gap is steering the midterms - Next City Digest\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As of late June, about 12.6 million votes had been cast in Democratic House primaries, compared with 8.6 million in Republican primaries\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=8229\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Next City Digest\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-02T10:22:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=8229#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=8229\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/13065d40d633843429ac57d4e5c06f9b\"},\"headline\":\"Klas: A voter enthusiasm gap is steering the midterms\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-02T10:22:35+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=8229\"},\"wordCount\":981,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=8229#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/9a1f09a1fa45dd9d17684fda0cbd5bc3.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"Opinion\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=8229#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=8229\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=8229\",\"name\":\"Klas: A voter enthusiasm gap is steering the midterms - 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