{"id":5272,"date":"2026-07-24T04:09:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T04:09:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=5272"},"modified":"2026-07-24T04:09:41","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T04:09:41","slug":"the-bay-area-has-a-massive-shelter-shortage-more-beds-alone-wont-solve-homelessness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=5272","title":{"rendered":"The Bay Area has a massive shelter shortage. More beds alone won\u2019t solve homelessness"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was produced as a project for the USC Annenberg Center for Health Journalism\u2019s 2025 Data Fellowship. It is Part 3 of a Bay Area News Group series examining why homelessness is so severe in the Bay Area, what sets the region apart and what could help.<\/em><\/p>

Read more Letters: Oakland drivers deserve safe, well-maintained streets<\/a><\/p>\n

After two years living in an RV at San Jose\u2019s Columbus Park, Fernando Vilchis Alcantara eagerly accepted a spot at a motel the city converted into a homeless shelter, relieved to be free of the constant worry of being ticketed or towed.<\/p>\n

From there, he moved to one of the city\u2019s tiny-home shelters, where outreach workers helped him secure a subsidized apartment near Happy Hollow Zoo this spring. With the stability of a permanent home, the 51-year-old Vilchis Alcantara, who came to San Jose from Mexico as a teenager, said he hoped to return to work as an electrician and finally piece his life back together.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s my new start,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

But for many of the Bay Area\u2019s roughly 38,000 unhoused residents, a similar path out of homelessness remains elusive.<\/p>\n

The region lacks anywhere near enough shelter beds for everyone who needs them, and only about a third of its homeless population is sheltered on a given night, a far lower rate than many other parts of the country struggling with homelessness, according to a Bay Area News Group analysis of the latest available shelter data reported to the federal government. The severe shortage has heightened the visibility of the crisis across the Bay Area, helping fuel a political push in recent years to direct millions of public dollars toward adding thousands of new shelter beds.<\/p>\n

As San Jose and other local cities have added more beds, some have seen significant declines in the number of people living on the street. But many appear to be struggling with the ultimate goal of most shelter programs: helping people out of homelessness. Of those who leave Bay Area shelters each year, fewer than half transition to permanent housing, a trend mirrored nationwide, according to shelter data local officials send to the federal government.<\/p>\n

While there\u2019s evidence that newer shelter models, including tiny homes and converted motels, can do a better job of placing people into lasting homes, some experts and advocates argue the effort to expand shelters will have only limited success until the region can alleviate its dire affordable housing shortage.<\/p>

\n<\/div>\n

\u201cShelter can be a helpful tool along the way for somebody to have safety, a place where they can connect with a case manager, supportive services that help them stabilize,\u201d said Alex Visotzky, senior California policy fellow with the National Alliance to End Homelessness. \u201cBut you\u2019ve got to have housing if shelter is going to do anything meaningful on your overall level of homelessness.\u201d<\/p>\n

The shortcomings of the shelter system<\/h4>\n

\n

\"This<\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

The Bay Area News Group analyzed shelter inventory data, shelter exit data and \u201cpoint-in-time\u201d estimates for sheltered and unsheltered homeless populations provided by local communities to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development from 2010 through 2024.<\/p>\n

The analysis found that about 2 in 3 homeless residents nationwide are sheltered, compared with just over 1 in 3 in the Bay Area. The discrepancy becomes even more stark when comparing the Bay Area to East Coast cities with large homeless populations. New York City shelters over 95% of its homeless population and Washington, D.C., shelters more than 80%.<\/p>

\n<\/div>\n

Many places with higher shelter rates are in colder regions where there is an obvious incentive to have enough shelter beds available during harsh winters. For example, Washington, D.C. has a right-to-shelter mandate that goes into effect during freezing conditions, and New York City has a right-to-shelter policy year-round. But some places with warmer climates, such as Florida\u2019s Miami-Dade County, have also built out shelter systems that accommodate more of their unhoused populations.<\/p>\n

Despite persistent concerns from local officials that some who are homeless refuse shelter, no county in the Bay Area has enough beds for its entire homeless population. Overall, the region has over two homeless people per shelter bed, according to the analysis of shelter inventory data, which includes homeless shelters and transitional housing. In Santa Clara County \u2014 the local county with the largest homeless population \u2014 there are three homeless people per shelter bed.<\/p>\n

Living without shelter takes a toll. A body of research suggests that those who are unsheltered experience higher rates of mortality and poor health outcomes, including mental health issues and substance use disorders. Some studies, <\/strong>as well as reports by this news organization,\u00a0show that those living unsheltered are frequently victims of violent crimes, sexual assault and theft.<\/p>\n

Unsheltered homelessness has also become an increasingly potent political issue for housed people throughout the Bay Area. Concerns over public health, drug use, safety and the cost to emergency services have helped fuel local policies to build more shelters, coinciding with drops in the number of people living on the street.<\/p>\n

Between 2023 and 2025, San Jose\u2019s unsheltered homelessness fell 10% to 3,959 people, even as its total homeless population rose 4%, according to the latest available estimates. In 2026, Oakland reported a 27% decline in unsheltered homelessness over the previous two years, while San Francisco saw a 22% drop. Overall homelessness also fell in both cities. Because jurisdictions conduct their counts in different years, the latest figures cover different periods.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we\u2019re offering people is a safe, dignified and viable alternative to the streets,\u201d said San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a leading voice for boosting shelter capacity.<\/p>\n

\n

\"Chart<\/figure>\nStill, most people leaving shelters in a given year do not move into permanent housing, according to the shelter exit data, which includes rates for local communities. Rates in the Bay Area have varied over time, but in the last five years, only San Mateo and Marin counties have ever housed more than half of those who exited shelter, with each surpassing that figure for two years.<\/p>\n

The federal data does not indicate where those who left a shelter without moving to housing went next, though a study of the San Mateo County shelter system offers some indication of potential outcomes. The analysis found that while most families moved into housing, the majority of single adults became unsheltered or went to another shelter.<\/p>\n

Several factors may explain why most shelter residents in the Bay Area don\u2019t find lasting homes.<\/p>\n

Experts point to a severe shortage of affordable housing, which can lead to years-long waits for rental assistance or a spot in permanent supportive housing, which provides formerly unhoused people with services such as addiction and mental health counseling.<\/p>\n

Additionally, experts said some people experiencing homelessness bounce in and out of a shelter over time, as concerns over privacy or safety drive them to leave. Others who violate shelter rules or whose disabilities cannot be supported by the shelter system may also be moved out. In some instances, restrictions on the length of shelter stays can mean losing a bed.<\/p>\n

\u201cShelter should be a stopgap in homelessness. \u2026 It is a revolving door instead,\u201d said Jamie Chang, a homelessness researcher with UC Berkeley\u2019s School of Social Welfare. \u201cThe way that most of our shelter system is designed is not conducive to people finding long-term housing.\u201d<\/p>

Read more Trump imposes double-digit tariffs on dozens of countries as his 10% levies are set to expire Friday<\/a><\/p>\n

Can better shelter models improve the outcomes?<\/h4>\n

To slow the revolving door between shelters and the street, some are trying to reinvent the shelter model.<\/p>\n

Historically, shelters have offered bunk beds in shared rooms segregated by gender. In many cases, there are strict restrictions on pets and guests. This model, called \u201ccongregate\u201d shelter, can exacerbate privacy and safety concerns, causing some to choose to live on the streets, experts said.<\/p>\n

Newer shelter models introduced in recent years, including tiny homes and converted motels with private rooms, are meant to provide a more stable, welcoming environment for shelter residents. These units, known as \u201cinterim housing,\u201d often have individual bathrooms and generally allow couples and pets.<\/p>\n

In some ways, the models have shown improvements over their alternatives. An by public policy consultant Focus Strategies from 2022 to 2024 found that people tend to stay at congregate shelters for only three weeks. Those at interim housing sites, however, stayed four times as long and moved into permanent housing at three times the rate of those in congregate shelters. Longer stays were associated with a higher likelihood of finding housing, according to the analysis. Even so, the placement rate out of interim housing was just 27%.<\/p>\n

According to previous reporting by this news organization, people leaving tiny homes in Alameda County moved into housing at similar rates between 2019 and 2022, while Santa Clara County tiny homes helped move 43% of occupants to housing. Both rates were higher than\u00a0those of local group shelters.<\/p>\n

Elizabeth Funk, founder and CEO of DignityMoves, has spearheaded the construction of interim housing sites with private units and locking doors across the Bay Area. To cut red tape and reduce costs, the San Francisco nonprofit looks to borrow land rather than buy it and to use prefabricated building components, among other measures.<\/p>\n

While the total cost of developing a single unit of affordable housing can exceed $600,000 in the Bay Area, Funk said she can develop a private shelter unit at a tenth of the price or less. put the price of developing a tiny home at around $72,000. The comparison is imperfect: Permanent housing is a lasting asset that\u2019s more likely to include land costs, while interim shelters are more likely to require continuing operating subsidies. Funk said DignityMoves can also erect prefabricated shelters in a matter of months, compared with the years-long process of building affordable housing.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have chosen to put 10 times as much money per unit into permanent housing than to get everybody indoors,\u201d she said. \u201cThat is a policy choice to let people languish on the streets.\u201d<\/p>\n

San Jose officials have made similar arguments and have begun redirecting tens of millions of dollars in annual funding previously earmarked for permanent housing to interim housing shelters. The move came over the objections of some homeless advocates, who contend the shift will result in fewer permanent homes and worsen the shelter exit bottleneck.<\/p>\n

Opponents also note that while the federal government provides rental assistance to help fund affordable and supportive housing sites, the same subsidies are not available for homeless shelters \u2014 leaving cities and counties to cover a greater share of operating costs. Unlike tenants in affordable housing, shelter residents do not pay rent.<\/p>\n

The cost of operating San Jose\u2019s expanded portfolio of 2,100 interim housing beds is expected to grow to $94 million this year. In the years ahead, the city will likely need to allocate around $30 million annually from its general fund to cover operating shortfalls, according to a city budget report. To bring down costs, city officials said they are seeking less expensive contracts with nonprofits to operate the sites, among other savings measures.<\/p>\n

A three-pronged solution<\/h4>\n

The limitations of shelter help explain why experts say reducing homelessness requires investments at every stage: preventing people from losing housing, providing immediate refuge from the street and creating permanent homes that offer a way out.<\/p>\n

In Santa Clara County, officials have launched a homeless prevention program providing direct cash assistance to families at risk of homelessness. A study by researchers at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana found that Santa Clara County\u2019s program reduced the risk of homelessness by over 70%, and that its financial benefits outweighed the costs by 2 to 1. Many counties across the Bay Area have similar prevention programs, including San Mateo and Contra Costa.<\/p>\n

By intervening before families lose their homes, Santa Clara County\u2019s program offers financial assistance of around $7,000 per household, according to , a fraction of the cost of building shelter or housing. Of the thousands of households aided by the program, over 9 in 10 remained housed two years later.<\/p>\n

According to HUD data, more than 90% of homeless residents entering permanent supportive housing in the Bay Area also remain housed from year to year. Experts and advocates cited the figure as support for a recent expansion of supportive housing units throughout the region.<\/p>\n

The investment has been massive: Over 30,000 units have been added across the Bay since 2010, according to federal data, more than tripling the region\u2019s stock of permanent supportive housing.<\/p>\n

Even so, experts argue the expansion is not nearly enough to offset the shortage of affordable housing of all kinds, and that the region must build more to alleviate the problem. Some 226,600 low-income renter households across the Bay Area lack an affordable home, according to an analysis by the nonprofit California Housing Partnership.<\/p>\n

\u201cShelter is really a critical part of the system,\u201d said Vivian Wan, CEO of Abode Services, which operates supportive housing sites throughout the Bay Area. \u201cHowever, it is really useless if there\u2019s no throughput to housing.\u201d<\/p>\n

But when housing is available, shelter can act as a crucial step toward a more dignified life. Vilchis Alcantara, who moved from shelter to housing in San Jose, said having a studio apartment of his own means he can host his 18-year-old daughter, Camila, who was unable to visit him while he was living in shelters.<\/p>\n

\u201cNow she can visit me anytime she wants,\u201d he said, smiling. \u201cThat\u2019s the best part.\u201d<\/p>\n

Previous stories in the series<\/h4>\n

Part 1:<\/strong>\u00a0One force sets the Bay Area\u2019s homelessness crisis apart: rent\u00a0|\u00a0The Bay Area\u2019s homelessness numbers are imperfect. They\u2019re also essential<\/p>

Read more Mark Cuban\u2019s investment group buys a minority stake in the A\u2019s ahead of Las Vegas move<\/a><\/p>\n

Part 2:<\/strong>\u00a0Why homelessness hits Bay Area cities harder than suburbs<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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