{"id":2681,"date":"2026-06-21T11:38:43","date_gmt":"2026-06-21T11:38:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=2681"},"modified":"2026-06-21T11:38:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-21T11:38:43","slug":"ai-giants-may-soon-enter-your-retirement-portfolio-should-you-worry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=2681","title":{"rendered":"AI giants may soon enter your retirement portfolio. Should you worry?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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If Bay Area artificial intelligence companies OpenAI and Anthropic go public at eye-popping valuations in coming months, many Americans could soon own stakes in the firms without ever choosing to buy their stock.<\/p>\n

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That offers the prospect of a substantial reward, as investors bank on healthy returns from a technology that has taken the world by storm since OpenAI released its pioneering ChatGPT less than four years ago.<\/p>\n

But it also poses risk if retirement portfolios become increasingly tied to companies whose trillion-dollar valuations depend on AI living up to its hype. Critics point to warning signs: OpenAI and Anthropic both anticipate going public at valuations approaching $1 trillion, yet the San Francisco companies remain unprofitable and are spending billions of dollars a year on computer processing.<\/p>\n

Major AI players have complicated, sometimes-circular financial arrangements with each other, many of them built on debt.<\/p>\n

When companies go public, their stock becomes available for purchase in the stock market. People often end up holding a particular company\u2019s stock because their retirement account \u2014 such as a 401(k) or an IRA \u2014 includes index funds that may add newly public companies after a waiting period or once they meet eligibility rules. Many pension funds also feature stock index holdings.<\/p>\n

SpaceX, which includes AI company xAI, went public June 12 and as of this week was valued at $2.5 trillion despite losing $5 billion last year. Anthropic and OpenAI have each confidentially submitted IPO paperwork to the SEC, though neither has set a public offering date. Many analysts expect their IPOs could occur this year.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the future utility and profitability of generative AI technology \u2014 which produces writing, imagery, computer code or audio in response to user prompts \u2014 is unclear.<\/p>\n

Anthropic and OpenAI, said Omri Even-Tov, a professor of accounting at UC Berkeley\u2019s Haas business school, are \u201cpriced for a future that hasn\u2019t happened yet.\u201d<\/p>\n

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But the future looks bright, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who in a note to investors Tuesday hailed SpaceX\u2019s \u201csolid\u201d public offering as \u201ca good sign for OpenAI and Anthropic as both companies likely head down the IPO path.\u201d<\/p>\n

Public-market money flowing into the AI giants would fuel the next phase of AI growth, Ives said.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs tech stalwarts like SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic get more capital and go public, this will just further drive more investments and (capital expenditure) into the AI Revolution flywheel,\u201d Ives said.<\/p>\n

For regular people with retirement accounts, the uncertainty over AI\u2019s prospects \u201cputs everybody between a rock and a hard place,\u201d said Paulo Carv\u00e3o, a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School who is studying AI regulation in the U.S. and the technology\u2019s societal effects.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThe opportunity is that this is transformational technology and has all the characteristics of what economists call \u2018general-purpose technologies\u2019 that diffuse quickly across the economy,\u201d Carv\u00e3o said.<\/p>\n

Should AI become general purpose, ordinary Americans, through retirement accounts and other investments, could be \u201cinvesting in what is foundational for the future.\u201d<\/p>\n

But excessive concentration of a person\u2019s investments in a few companies poses risk. Many major index funds base stock purchases on companies\u2019 stock market valuations, known as market caps. That means the biggest companies take up the largest share of investors\u2019 portfolios \u2014 and if OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX enter indexes at enormous valuations, retirement savers could end up with more exposure to them than they might expect.<\/p>\n

Should the companies\u2019 stock price fall, or if AI\u2019s promises don\u2019t materialize, retirement funds could take a hit.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll of a sudden, you have a lot of your savings concentrated in a small number of very large-cap stocks,\u201d Carv\u00e3o said. \u201cDiversification is the best way to avoid risk \u2014 this is a movement in the opposite direction.\u201d<\/p>\n

Another fundamental risk, Carv\u00e3o said, is whether demand for AI can grow fast enough to cover the enormous cost of developing and operating \u201cfrontier models\u201d \u2014 the huge AI systems that power products such as chatbots, coding assistants and image generators \u2014 in power-hungry data centers, and turn a profit.<\/p>\n

J.P. Morgan on Tuesday projected global AI capital spending of $5.5 trillion through 2030, with $4.1 trillion of it financed by debt.<\/p>\n

For Anthropic and OpenAI, \u201cradical change in revenue generation will have to happen so that you can sustain this level of advancements,\u201d Carv\u00e3o said.<\/p>\n

Anthropic has focused on selling to businesses, and while OpenAI is also seeking to boost its presence in that \u201centerprise\u201d market, it\u2019s largely focused on consumers, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt seems that Anthropic has a better path to profitability,\u201d Carv\u00e3o said, \u201cand it\u2019s operating in a market that tends to have more stable demand, which is the enterprise market.\u201d<\/p>\n

For businesses, AI has the potential to be as revolutionary as the personal computer and the internet.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThese technologies start to find their ways into business processes, and once they\u2019re embedded in the business processes, they\u2019re here to stay,\u201d Carv\u00e3o said.<\/p>\n

Still, a high-profile AI mishap in a prominent company could spook businesses and slow adoption, or government actions could take an enterprise AI product off the market, he said.<\/p>\n

Consumer-focused OpenAI \u201cseems to be extremely challenged,\u201d Carv\u00e3o said. \u201cThey\u2019re operating not only at a loss but with negative cash flow.\u201d<\/p>\n

The consumer market is more price-sensitive than the enterprise side, he said, adding that competition from AI companies like China\u2019s DeepSeek adds to the pressure.<\/p>\n

However, AI is \u201cstarting to be transformative\u201d among consumers, for example, by starting to replace internet search.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to see how some of the potential harms or problems are going to be mitigated, from hallucinations all the way to the harms like mental health,\u201d Carv\u00e3o said. Looming regulations could create \u201cguardrails that are beneficial for consumer adoption,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Prominent AI industry critic Ed Zitron, owner of San Francisco public relations firm EZPR, argues ordinary folks, through their retirement funds, \u201cwill be unwittingly fueling these companies that are bad.\u201d<\/p>\n

Zitron said he believes fundamental and probably insurmountable obstacles confront Anthropic and OpenAI.<\/p>\n

Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe people, as ever, who will suffer from these things will be regular people, rather than people who made this large con inflate,\u201d Zitron said. \u201cIt is morally reprehensible that these companies are being allowed to go public. I think SpaceX is probably the best of them, but only because of how bad OpenAI and Anthropic are.\u201d<\/p>\n

It takes up to three years to build a data center, thanks to steel and labor shortages, growing localized opposition and slow provision of electrical power infrastructure to run them, Zitron said. But AI companies are buying and storing pricey AI-processing chips to stock data centers once they open. With new, cutting-edge chips released every year, he said, the stockpiled processors risk becoming obsolete before they can become operational.<\/p>\n

Those infrastructure costs matter to retirement savers because they shape whether the companies can grow into their valuations.<\/p>\n

The industry\u2019s torturous financing raises alarms for Zitron. As an example, he cites Nvidia\u2019s investment in data center company CoreWeave, which buys Nvidia chips and then uses them as collateral to borrow money to buy more chips. CoreWeave then gets AI processing contracts with companies like OpenAI and Meta, and takes those contracts to banks to borrow money to buy more chips.<\/p>\n

CoreWeave, of New Jersey, told this news organization Wednesday that references to \u201ccircular financing\u201d don\u2019t \u201cstack up with the facts.\u201d Its deal with Nvidia \u201cis a strategic investment in the broader AI ecosystem, helping accelerate the buildout of infrastructure that customers are already demanding.\u201d<\/p>\n

In September, OpenAI and Nvidia announced a partnership under which Nvidia said it intended to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI progressively as new AI infrastructure is deployed.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s companies effectively handing money to other companies so they can use it to buy their stuff,\u201d Zitron said. \u201cYou don\u2019t have to do this if you have a real industry.\u201d<\/p>\n

Close financial ties among AI players \u2014 even among rivals \u2014 highlight the risk to Americans\u2019 retirement funds should AI falter, Zitron said. For example, Google, which markets its Gemini chatbot to consumers and businesses and has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on AI, said in April it would invest up to $40 billion in its competitor Anthropic, according to news reports.<\/p>\n

Pricing of AI products also sends up a red flag, Zitron said. After OpenAI and Anthropic moved business customers to usage-based pricing earlier this year, \u201cinstead of getting this all-you-can-eat Bacchanalia, you had to pay for everything you used,\u201d Zitron said.<\/p>\n

Uber in June capped employees\u2019 use of AI tools in the face of burgeoning costs, Bloomberg reported. Last month, Uber chief operating officer Andrew Macdonald said on the Rapid Response podcast that a link between the company\u2019s use of AI and productivity gains was \u201cnot there yet.\u201d<\/p>\n

Americans wary of having their retirement savings dependent on the performance of AI companies going public have more to consider, Berkeley\u2019s Even-Tov said. Many index funds invest heavily in companies that have gone all in on AI, like Nvidia, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon, with such firms making up more than 40% of the S&P 500 index, Even-Tov said.<\/p>\n

Strong stock market performance by those companies in recent years has padded retirement savings for many Americans.<\/p>\n

But, Even-Tov said, \u201cjust buying the market isn\u2019t as diversified as it sounds.\u201d<\/p>\n

If AI is a bubble that pops, holding stock for the long term instead of panic-selling makes sense, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ll see indexes go back to what they were, and go higher,\u201d Even-Tov said.<\/p>\n

Even if AI proves transformative, the rise of giant AI companies may force ordinary investors to reconsider how diversified their \u201cdiversified\u201d retirement accounts really are.<\/p>\n

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OpenAI and Anthropic both anticipate going public at valuations approaching $1 trillion, yet they remain unprofitable and are spending billions of dollars a year on computer processing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nAI giants may soon enter your retirement portfolio. 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