{"id":1326,"date":"2026-06-06T10:39:23","date_gmt":"2026-06-06T10:39:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=1326"},"modified":"2026-06-06T10:39:23","modified_gmt":"2026-06-06T10:39:23","slug":"walters-californias-population-is-stagnating-as-immigration-and-birth-rates-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=1326","title":{"rendered":"Walters: California\u2019s population is stagnating as immigration and birth rates decline"},"content":{"rendered":"
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California\u2019s population exploded during and immediately after World War II, from 6.9 million in 1940 to 19.9 million in 1970, thanks to waves of migrants from other states drawn to California\u2019s surging economy and the famous postwar baby boom.<\/p>\n

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California absorbed its 13 million new residents by expanding its public infrastructure of schools, colleges, highways, parks and water systems and by welcoming immense private investment in new housing, new retail complexes, new factories and new office buildings.<\/p>\n

Population growth slowed in the 1970s in the aftermath of the baby boom and as an economic evolution, from manufacturing to technology and services, changed the job market. The leading politician of the decade, Gov. Jerry Brown, declared that California had entered \u201can era of limits\u201d and major infrastructure expansion was no longer needed.<\/p>\n

However, the 1980s saw a new population surge, driven by immigration from other countries and a new baby boom. California\u2019s population jumped by 6 million \u2014 5-plus million of them babies \u2014 during the decade, a more than 25% gain.<\/p>\n

The increase was so large, relative to the nation as a whole, that California was awarded seven new congressional seats after the 1990 census.<\/p>\n

Unlike California\u2019s expansive reaction to its postwar population increase, the 1980s boomlet sparked an adverse reaction in the 1990s, including new laws aimed at\u00a0denying public services to undocumented immigrants\u00a0and a\u00a0power struggle within the Sierra Club\u00a0over immigration\u2019s impact on the environment.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, population growth slowed again, and in this decade virtually halted as immigration and birth rates declined and substantial numbers of people left California, thanks largely to the state\u2019s sky-high living costs.<\/p>\n

A\u00a0recent study\u00a0by researchers Hans Johnson, Julien LaFortune and Eric McGhee\u00a0at the Public Policy Institute of California found that the total fertility rate has dropped from 2.21 children per woman in 2007 to 1.48 in 2023, far below what demographers call the \u201creplacement level of 2.1 necessary to keep a population from declining.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

The state lost a congressional seat after the 2020 census and is\u00a0likely to lose several more after the 2030 census. However, the impacts of California\u2019s population plateau extend far beyond politics.<\/p>\n

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\u201cA smaller population can offer benefits; it reduces pressure on housing and infrastructure needs,\u201d the researchers wrote, \u201ceasing congestion and reducing the need for expansive public works projects.\u201d They also cited potential improvements in the environment and increasing per pupil spending on education as enrollment declines.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the same time,\u201d they added, \u201cfewer births \u2014 and a smaller population \u2014 may bring challenges: they could accelerate K\u201312 enrollment declines and strain the state\u2019s economic and safety net systems as fewer workers support a larger share of older Californians. Labor shortages could also hinder California\u2019s economic development.\u201d<\/p>\n

Those are all valid points and many more potential impacts could be mentioned. But the underlying issue is whether political policies will reflect the new demographic reality.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

The post-World War II population explosion manifested itself in a bipartisan effort to do what was needed to make the transition relatively painless. We haven\u2019t seen such political adjustment to changing demographic trends since.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the state\u2019s population is twice what it was in 1970 and we still depend on what politicians wrought in the post-war era \u2014 such things as the State Water Plan and our extensive freeway network.<\/p>\n

A stagnant population eases pressure for new infrastructure but we still need to maintain what we have and expand it to meet current needs. However, water projects have languished and we no longer build new highways.<\/p>\n

Jerry Brown, who proclaimed the \u201cera of limits\u201d in the 1970s, returned to the governorship in 2011 and declared, \u201cI want to get shit done.\u201d<\/p>\n

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There\u2019s still much that should be done.<\/p>\n

Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

California\u2019s population growth has hit a historic plateau as birth rates and immigration decline. 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