{"id":1060,"date":"2026-06-02T22:14:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T22:14:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=1060"},"modified":"2026-06-02T22:14:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T22:14:03","slug":"election-night-five-things-to-watch-for-in-california","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=1060","title":{"rendered":"Election Night: Five things to watch for in California"},"content":{"rendered":"
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There\u2019s no Ronald Reagan, Arnold Schwarzenegger or Jerry Brown. California\u2019s marquee contest in the 2026 primary doesn\u2019t have the star power of many previous governor\u2019s races in America\u2019s most populous state.<\/p>\n

Read more Gross vehicular manslaughter charge against suspect in fatal San Leandro crash that killed beloved school employee<\/a><\/p>\n

There was that possibility for a while. But 10 months ago, former Vice President Kamala Harris, an Oakland native, decided not to run, leaving a wide-open and unsettled field to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who leaves office in January due to term limits.<\/p>\n

In bright blue California, registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans 2-to-1. No Republican has won statewide office since 2006, when Schwarzenegger and former Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, were re-elected. Nevertheless, there\u2019s still some drama afoot. Here are five things to watch for as the results begin rolling in tonight:<\/p>\n

1) Beware the \u201cRed Mirage.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t be fooled by early returns. There\u2019s a fairly good chance that we won\u2019t know who the top two finishers in the governor\u2019s race are tonight, experts say, which could generate a lot of incorrect punditry, partisan anger and ungrounded conspiracy theories in the days ahead.<\/p>\n

The reasons are simple: Even though the polls close at 8 p.m., under California law all 23.1 million registered voters in the state received a mail-in ballot. State law also requires that ballots must be counted as long as they are postmarked by Election Day and arrive at county elections offices within seven days after that. In other words, thousands of valid ballots won\u2019t even have reached election offices tonight.<\/p>\n

Political consultants who have been tracking the return rate so far have noted that many of the earliest voters were registered Republicans. President Trump endorsed fellow Republican and former Fox News personality Steve Hilton two months ago. But many Democratic voters have waited until the last minute to vote. That\u2019s due to the fact that there are six major Democratic candidates, and many people wanted to learn more about each one\u2019s positions and polling numbers. It\u2019s also part of an informal trend of strategic voting where some Democratic voters decided to vote for whichever Democrat was leading in the final polls to help consolidate Democratic votes and reduce the risk that both of the top finishers moving to the November general election would be Republicans.<\/p>\n

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Those early Republican votes will be counted first. Republican candidates Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco are likely to be faring well in the first wave of announced results after 8 pm. But as the later, more Democratic-trending ballots are counted and continue to arrive after Election Day, there could well be a \u201cblue shift,\u201d as Democratic candidates surge past them.<\/p>\n

Based on the most recent polling, some political pros expect a scenario like this: Hilton and former Democratic state Attorney General Xavier Becerra could be leading Tuesday night, and then Wednesday and in the following few days, billionaire hedge fund manager Tom Steyer, a Democrat, slowly gains and perhaps even passes the second-place candidate. That could potentially oust Becerra or even set up an all-Democrat Becerra vs Steyer general election contest. Ballots that come in by mail on Election Day and the week after must be opened, their signatures and postmarks verified, and counted. Bottom line: It\u2019s a marathon, not a sprint.<\/p>\n

2) Can a billionaire win in California?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Tom Steyer has a net worth of $2.4 billion. He accumulated that wealth as the founder of Farallon Capital Management, a San Francisco hedge fund. He has never held public office. Following up an unsuccessful run for president in the Democratic primary in 2020, he\u2019s tried again now in the California governor\u2019s race.<\/p>\n

Steyer has put his money where his ambitions are, spending a record $213 million to blanket the state with advertising over the past month. It has helped boost his name recognition and polling numbers. He has won support from many progressive voters who are attracted to his liberal positions, such as embracing a statewide single-payer health care system and supporting higher taxes on billionaires like himself.<\/p>\n

But California voters have not been kind to very wealthy candidates in the past. There is a long list of business titans, heirs and other uber-rich hopefuls who were accused of trying to buy elected office and who saw their dreams end in disappointment. Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman spent $144 million of her own money in a run for governor in 2010, only to be trounced by 13 points by Jerry Brown.<\/p>\n

Longtime residents remember Al Checchi, the former co-chairman of Northwest Airlines, who dumped $40 million of his own money \u2014 then an all-time record \u2014 into a campaign for California governor in 1998. But \u201cAl Checkbook,\u201d as he became known, won only 12%, losing badly to Gray Davis in the Democratic primary, despite outspending him by more than 5-to-1.\u200b<\/p>\n

Similar fates befell Michael Huffington, a businessman from a wealthy Texas family who spent $28 million of his own money to get beat by Dianne Feinstein in the 1994 Senate race; billionaire Rick Caruso, who spent $100 million in the 2022 Los Angeles mayor\u2019s race, only to lose to Democratic congresswoman Karen Bass; and former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, who spent $1 billion of his own fortune on a presidential campaign in 2020, only to finish fourth in the California primary behind Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, dropping out soon after.<\/p>\n

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan already has shown the trend this year. He raised more than any candidate in the governor\u2019s race except Steyer, with big backing from tech leaders. But he has remained mired in single digits in the polls.<\/p>\n

3) Have Bay Area residents hit their tax limit?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Voters in the heavily Democratic nine-county Bay Area and many other parts of California have a long history of voting to approve taxes and bonds for schools, colleges, roads, transit systems, libraries, water projects and parks.<\/p>\n

But they are feeling financial pain this year. In a poll last month by the non-partisan Public Policy Institute of California, 44% of state residents said the cost of living was the most important issue facing the state, and another 14% said housing costs were the top issue \u2014 far outpacing concerns about homelessness, immigration, education and crime.<\/p>\n

Nationally, with Trump\u2019s tariffs and the war in Iran sending prices higher at the store and the gas pump, 80% of Californians said the nation is headed in the wrong direction, despite solid gains in the stock market.<\/p>\n

Read more Opinion: State\u2019s second-highest post brings too much danger for me<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s remarkable that even with a relatively healthy economy, Californians have been feeling gloomier and gloomier about the U.S. for a few years now,\u201d said Mark Baldassare, PPIC\u2019s Statewide Survey director.<\/p>\n

School districts across the Bay Area are asking voters to approve more than $688 million in 19 school bonds and parcel tax measures this election. The Santa Clara Valley Open Space Authority is seeking to raise $17 million a year in Measure D, a parcel tax to buy land, reduce fire risk and hire more rangers.<\/p>\n

San Jose\u2019s Measure A is an increase in the hotel tax from 10% to 12% to generate $10 million a year for police, fire and other city services. San Francisco voters will decide Proposition A, a $535 million bond for earthquake retrofitting. Oakland voters will consider Measure E, a $192 annual parcel tax pushed by Mayor Barbara Lee to help fund police, fire and other services. Contra Costa County ballots will include Measure B \u2014 a temporary countywide 0.625% general sales tax for five years to offset health care and hospital cuts by Republicans in Congress. And in the North Bay, Measure B would extend a quarter-cent sales tax for another 30 years to fund the Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit District, or SMART train system.<\/p>\n

In 1992, James Carville, campaign manager for Bill Clinton, famously told his staff, \u201cIt\u2019s the economy, stupid.\u201d Tonight, we\u2019ll see how much that resonates in the Golden State during a time of economic anxiety.<\/p>\n

4) Who will succeed Nancy Pelosi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Love her or hate her, Nancy Pelosi is a political titan and trailblazer in the Bay Area. The San Francisco Democrat has served in Congress for nearly 40 years, first winning election in 1986. She has been one of the Democratic Party\u2019s leading fundraisers for decades. She is the only woman in American history to serve as Speaker of the House, holding the gavel from 2007 to 2011 and from 2019 to 2023, passing the Affordable Care Act and other landmark laws.<\/p>\n

Now Pelosi, who is 86, is finally retiring. Three leading Democratic candidates are running to succeed her in California\u2019s 11th District, one of the most Democratic districts in the state. They are Scott Wiener, a state senator who has successfully passed laws in Sacramento making it easier to build housing, sometimes over neighbors\u2019 concerns, and who has championed gay rights; Saikat Chakrabarti, a former founding engineer at the tech company Stripe who became chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and who has criticized Pelosi; and Connie Chan, a progressive San Francisco supervisor who represents the Richmond District, Sea Cliff, Presidio Terrace and other neighborhoods.<\/p>\n

Last month, Pelosi endorsed Chan, giving her campaign a key boost.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have to have women at the table,\u201d she said in an interview with NBC News, citing the recent retirements of other Bay Area congresswomen like Anna Eshoo, D-Palo Alto, and Jackie Speier, D-San Mateo, who were succeeded by men.<\/p>\n

A San Francisco Chronicle poll last month just before Pelosi\u2019s endorsement found that 40% of likely primary voters said they planned to vote for Wiener, while Chakrabarti pulled 18% and Chan 17%. In this race, all eyes are on who will win second place, and survive to the November general election. Does Pelosi still have the gravitas to win a race where she isn\u2019t on the ballot? Or is the party passing her by?<\/p>\n

5) A wild reality show for Los Angeles mayor<\/strong><\/p>\n

Karen Bass won election to Congress six times to represent Los Angeles. She had a cushy seat. Then she chose to run for mayor of L.A., the state\u2019s largest and one of its most difficult-to-govern cities. Her life has been tumultuous since then.<\/p>\n

After fending off billionaire developer Rick Caruso in the 2022 mayoral election, Bass took a massive political hit when devastating wildfires burned the Palisades and Altadena areas of the city in January 2025, killing 31 people and destroying 18,000 homes and other structures, while she was away on a trip to Africa. Lack of water in the city\u2019s fire hydrants and the refusal of her administration to release records related to the fire department\u2019s response sent her popularity plummeting.<\/p>\n

With the Olympics coming to L.A. in two years, Bass is seeking re-election. She faces Spencer Pratt, a reality TV star who has never held public office, and progressive city councilmember Nithya Raman. Bass likes to note that she has never lost an election.<\/p>\n

This one is close.<\/p>\n

The latest UC Berkeley-Los Angeles Times poll last week showed Bass at 26%, Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22% among likely voters.<\/p>\n

Pratt, whose house burned down in the fire, has gained attention for his AI-generated ads showing the city as a burning hellscape plagued by homeless encampments, with Bass as a Joker-like figure, and he as a Batman-style hero. He has been endorsed by Donald Trump. That is getting some pushback in the heavily Democratic city.<\/p>\n

\u201cMayor should not be your first job,\u201d late-night host Jimmy Kimmel said last week. \u201cAre we really going to risk repeating that mistake we made with Trump in L.A., of all places?\u201d<\/p>\n

But Pratt has the buzz. Can he pull an upset? This reality show is for real. The top two finishers go through to the November general election.<\/p>\n

Read more Pop music superstar brings record-breaking concert tour to Bay Area<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An unsettled governor’s race, key House contests, and lots of new taxes are on the ballot<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nElection Night: Five things to watch for in California - Next City Digest<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=1060\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Election Night: Five things to watch for in California - Next City Digest\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"An unsettled governor's race, key House contests, and lots of new taxes are on the ballot\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/nextcitydigest.com\/?p=1060\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Next City Digest\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-02T22:14:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"10 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=1060#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=1060\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/13065d40d633843429ac57d4e5c06f9b\"},\"headline\":\"Election Night: Five things to watch for in California\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-02T22:14:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=1060\"},\"wordCount\":1981,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=1060#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/ebf87eb013cafd0ce5a70460d4d193e3.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=1060#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=1060\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextcitydigest.com\\\/?p=1060\",\"name\":\"Election Night: Five things to watch for in California - 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